The boom in fertilizer market has experienced the 07, 08 years of slump, 09, struggling, 10 years of relatively stable operation, fertilizer management has entered the 2011 to decide by "speed" profit. What is the reason?
　　First, fundamental change
　　The fertilizer market has been fundamental changes have taken place. Change embodied in three aspects: first, fundamental changes have taken place in the supply and demand contradiction, the transition from shortage to basic balance of supply and demand, and now has entered a severe oversupply situation. "No sorrow cant take the arrival of the goods, shipment have sold not only" dealers across the country have said so. Second, fundamental changes have taken place in the transportation conditions, transportation has entered the era of "projects", namely "highway", "high-speed rail". "Playing in the afternoon, went to the warehouse tomorrow morning, so fast!" Third, from the uninformed to information globalization, the fertilizer market has not many business secret. "Cant fool me, mobile phone short message every day, than you also knew what was happening" distributor to represent the supplier, the retailer to dealers said so too.
　　Second, the "hoarding" conditions
　　Look back again "hoarding" or "off-season reserves" to obtain the basic conditions of bumper profits,
　　First, the end of last century the fertilizer market in the supply state at the turn of the century, farmers often worry for cant buy fertilizer. Have snapped up fat, fat fat storage is prepared that time farmers often do.
　　Second, the delivery is slow, from the distributor to your suppliers to apply for wagon loading, transportation on the way to the terminus, the fastest also get ten days, normal half a month, more than 20 days to arrive at the dealer warehouse is not slow. So dealers competition can take time management strategy, the dealers in the goods not in place before goods out of stock for a period of time, the dealer obviously cargo feel good pin, then immediately aware of the market in change, when out of stock "of" the right to stop selling a second day, take "hoarding" business strategy to form tension caused local supply air supply condition, price rise, stock up and selling can get profits.
　　Third, information asymmetry cause local information occlusion, asymmetry is offered "hoarding" living space, such as compound fertilizer in serious shortage state in a given area, and the outside world counterparts do not informed so goods will not flow in the past, have stock enterprises take "hoarding" business strategy to get excess profits.
　　Fourth, "off-season reserves" to be able to gain high profits is based on perennial production farmers seasonal use fertilizer suppliers, every year in October, the national agriculture has basically completed the autumn harvest were fertilizer use to enter the off-season, while the supplier production continues to forming the contradiction, the supplier only in low price or discount promotion way to store fertilizer to the dealer, the dealer had "reservoir" effect, a second spring fertilizer pin, due to the national farmers used together, plus during the Spring Festival transportation stress the influence of such factors as the fertilizer market by supply into the off-season in short supply, price and inflation, as temperatures warmed up, and fertilizer sales volume are increased day by day, has been the off-season reserves of dealers to make money, so that the "off-season reserves" business model was born. But in recent years, the so-called "rule" is broken, is often more to use the busy season, the lower the price, not only earn excess profit, but due to careless operation slightly, sales is slow and cant make money. Appear this kind of phenomenon the reason is caused by supply and demand contradiction, before the Spring Festival "off-season reserves a large number of replenish onrs stock, and dont have much sales, although after the Spring Festival have pin, but the sales volume is not large, most dealers including retailers warehouse also with the" off-season reserves "of goods, inventory that is to say, the whole society. And the national suppliers see already pin or according to the practice over the years into best-selling period, so all production, in fact, the national agricultural production with fertilizer demand is basically stable, every year has increased but there can be no great increase thus caused the situation of oversupply, prices have followed. Too much inventory of dealer will face a difficult state of business.
　　Three, the inevitable trend
　　This is a phenomenon or a trend? Judgment standard is contradiction of supply and demand, when the demand of fertilizer market will appear "hoarding" phenomenon. When the basic balance of supply and demand, very few people make "off-season reserves". When supply exceeds demand, people not only not "off-season reserves" for existing inventory still worry about selling their cheap prices in large quantities. Transportation factors of supply and demand contradiction of effects. When others cargo for transportation factors at that time the supply is from local supply tight, temporary state in local area, so goods good sales right away, and have the possibility of rising prices. When someone able to supply on the back to its original condition. The influence of information on supply and demand contradiction is the same. Since the fertilizer market business model is ultimately determined by supply and demand contradiction, so that supply exceeds demand condition is temporary or long-term trend? After reform and opening up 30 years of practice has proved that shortage of planned economy is the economy, the socialist market economy is the surplus economy. Excess surplus goods in all walks of life now is not just fertilizer, as long as the practice of socialist market economy in our country, the goods in the supply situation is irreversible, will exist for a long time.
　　Four, characteristics
　　Under this condition the fertilizer market is characterized by what?
　　1, fertilizer prices rise and fall is frequent. Urea price gains, several year round. Retailers as urea fertilizer prices rise and fall of the vane, urea up means that the next compound fertilizer will rise, fall down after. When fertilizer prices tend to rise, the national power production, supply chamber of commerce between tilting moment caused by excess supply, due to excess sales not free the supplier to machine, workers, and cash to buy raw materials, price for sale, or selling at a loss. According to the principle of buy or not to buy up, dealers now wait, think the supplier will also fall, is out of stock, it is one of the few distributors warehouse inventory. Farmers also behave quite rational fertilizer users, using the season can no longer wait to purchase fertilizer. National farmers from north to south, from west to east use time basic is consistent, although there are differences due to demand pull dealer to replenish onrs stock, the supplier fertilizer prices rise again, so up and down a few times a year, appear frequently.
　　2, gains and losses, phenomenon of fertilizer market generally dont back out of the 07, 08 slump in boom conditions. But prices is inevitable, because the supplier of the growth of the cost of labor, energy, raw materials, etc, is bound to cause the growth of the fertilizer prices, but the rise of milder rise, is slowly rising, is progressive, its essence is a rising tide lifts all boats, the "water" is the social cost, "ship" is the fertilizer prices. So the supplier said: "costs have risen, fertilizer prices only go up." This doesnt get much benefit price suppliers. Boom, boom due to a temporary tight or discontinuity caused by fertilizer production related factors, combined with the suppliers to see the fertilizer market "at" intentionally, formation of distributors, retailers nervous mental focus hurriedly call shipment, temporarily in short supply. After the related factors to solve supply is normal, the supplier is also in full power production, the inertia movement contradiction of supply and demand and supply state changes occur at this moment, the supplier in order to solve the problem such as stocks, funds then take promotion way, colleagues rushed to sell, then prices plunged. The soaring slump is irrational, up and down range is big, time is short, prices must return to the origin, sometimes below the origin.
　　3, dealers becomes rational, after painful lesson 08 and 09 year chastened, "scar good, but not forget pain memories. The majority of dealers to cautious fertilizer price in 2011 at a rally, does not appear 08 and 09 snapping up and always keep reasonable inventory is proved.
　　4, fundamental changes have taken place in farmers consumption idea, farmers dont have to leave now buy, with the unprepared fertilizer played quite rational purchase behavior, vanished from snapping up phenomenon.
　　Five, the way out
　　Under the situation of fertilizer how to operate?
　　Looking back on it "hoarding" mode of operation found that the operation is too risky. "Off-season reserves" its essence is the "hoarding" mode of operation has evolved also hide big business risk. Some years not only cant make money, even lose money, not taken this lesson is often the case. So, fertilizer prices up and down articulate about when the analysis of the market, appear to be reasonable, but cant afford to actual inspection, is pale in the face of facts, so the fertilizer market is difficult to predict, with excessive risk-taking. 08 and 09 painful business dealers management behavior has become conservative, fertilizer management are affected until 2011. In 2011, many dealers didnt earn much money, the fertilizer market is bullish, the lost time and time again in the hesitation opportunity, step, step by step, always in a passive and finally dreading restocked. Specific performance is as follows: the first price that will fall next, such as prices fell again replenish onrs stock, then decide not to purchase. Only the second time, and that the next would be depreciated, to wait for a period of time to replenish onrs stock, the results havent such as to reduce the price. Instead for the third time and price, this part of the distributor cant "" at this time, the original inventory has finished pin, pleased again tall, retailers, the original sales varieties has been replaced by other varieties, just not replenish onrs stock is not available to sell it, cautious is conservative to keep up with times, nature also cant make money. How to change the traditional management mode, make oneself and avoid risk, and can make money, that is only one way is to speed up the fertilizer turnover and the sooner the better, the faster the mean operating risk is smaller, although could not have windfall profits, but also not losing money, earn a normal price, because the turnover speed, turns, the accumulation of profits is considerable.
　　Six, speed,
　　How to recognize "speed" in the fertilizer business?
　　The fertilizer management rather than "the big fish eat small fish" "fast fish eat slow fish". The so-called "big fish" called capital, large storage capacity, various factors are better than small and medium-sized distributors, but the management risk is big also, especially now the fertilizer market price fluctuation frequency is accelerated, the price is hard to judge the right circumstances, big distributors such as not changing management idea change strategy or continue to use "store JuJi strange" or "off-season reserves" traditional business strategy, so there will be such a situation, namely the years run down is also have a year of profits, but must also have a year of losses, the cumulative findings dont make much money. Take "sharp" called "speed" business strategy, in contrast, the use of capital, means that the inventory is not big, the main energy, human use slow steady real "dig channels" and "fix channels", dont expect huge profits. Do everything possible to make fertilizer sales speed, the result to solve such questions: （1） fertilizer management conceptual change, no capital, no luck, dont want to get rich, but to practice "internal strength" earned in a market economy under the conditions of operation ability. （2）， avoid the risk of large, there will not be a big mistake, also means that there will not be a big loss. （3） build for victory, there are two meanings: one, because of the turnover speed, than the luck of betting on a mode of operation more turns, also means that profit pattern dont care about "a city pool" how much profit, but the total profit, just as people often say "see who laughs last", "dont look at process and the sprint", than is patience, at the end for revolving speed, fertilizer river drive other varieties such as pesticide sales is likely, sales object is the same retailer distribution on nothing but increase the varieties. So operating costs would fall, comprehensive economic benefit is improved. Through the above analysis, we can clearly see: small and medium-sized dealers as long as the business strategy properly, quickly to do strongly does the possibility of greatly increased. Small and medium-sized dealers close to the market, and make is hard money, cant quickly to do strongly does much suffer from capital constraints. Capital is important, no capital will not be able to run, but in what is now the speed is more important than capital operating conditions. This also means that to small and medium-sized distributors an opportunity to "roll over". Fertilizer management has entered the era of profit by speed.
　　Seven, to
　　How to improve fertilizer management turnover speed, "we want from such several aspects to improve.
　　1, choose brand varieties. Faster moving is the premise of varieties have a demand, the demand of solution is the variety was selling, demand has been resolved. 2 it is to cultivate the market, this requires that suppliers and dealers to work together. After a period of time sales reflect the effect is not ideal varieties of peasants is to stop selling, poor effect of varieties of even a pack is superfluous, flow naturally slow.
　　2, frequently into fast pin control carried out. Every time were appropriate control, management ability, according to their own warehouse to keep reasonable inventory, in order to keep goods for the principle. As soon as the price falls, selling inventory.
　　3, strive for the price advantage. Has a price advantage varieties velocity natural fast, so how to achieve price advantage? Fertilizer management must make scientific decisions. Should follow four principles: （1） information. All the relevant information of the fertilizer production must understand, we used fertilizer management both eyes on the local counterparts can only, must now global outlook, "single point" is the reason. （2） the judgment. The fertilizer market in control on the basis of the information to make a basic judgment is up? Is stable? Is down? （3） guts. Accurate still have to have the courage to bet on, not only in the "sea" sneaking away da looks （hesitation）， must be "the sea swimming" （combat）。 （4）。 Small and medium-sized operators financial strength is weak. How to do? Retailers is the dealers bank, to retailers to advance payment, one is to solve the money problem, 2 it is to solve the problem of sales, 3 it is to defuse the risks. Fertilizer varieties, prices have advantages, it is natural for velocity is fast.
　　4, establish loyalty sales network. Retailers too much choice, use this bargain all day a pressure that a business strategy, its essence is the expression of the retailer not loyal. The retailer loyalty, that is the day of sales speed.
　　5, distribution capabilities. With management of pesticides to fertilizer, fertilizer management will improve the service level. Pesticides in a distribution, and many dealers fertilizer management is based on tons of units, there is no car delivery is not, as a retailer of large amount of the following questions: （1） it is difficult to accept, afraid to sell out, take money. （2） easy to balance, and instead to package, they accelerated velocity, an easy to accept, such as 5 package, occupy less money, faster moving. Seen as payment for goods less as cattle defeathering not same feeling pain seldom arrears, capital turnover is fast, three to the retailers number increase, such as pesticide varieties also likely boosted sales. Four, according to biologists Pavlov "stimulus-response" theory to the retailer, the more the higher the dependence, the greater the sales.